Bull verses bear markets and the economy (reference list)

Today’s Readings are on the topic of the bears and bulls of the stock market. In the Fall Semester of 1973, I was taking five 3 semester hour classes at Florida Junior College at Jacksonville. I had only completed two college credit classes as a part-time student prior to that semester – a business math course and a psychology course. So that semester was somewhat challenging for me, to say the least. I had to write papers in three of my classes that semester, and I still remember the topics of those papers. I just wish I had saved all of the papers I wrote in college, but I did not.

One of the papers I wrote was about the bulls and bears of the stock market from as far back as I could go in history. I don’t remember how far back I went, but I remember going out to the University of North Florida library on weekends to do my research. There was no such thing as the internet back then. I spent hours in that library going through card catalogs, periodicals, and books. I traced the bulls and the bears of the market breaking the market’s ups and downs into the terms served by the presidents of the United States. After submitting my paper, I saw my instructor outside of class in passing while walking on campus one afternoon, and we stopped and talked. He told me that my paper and the paper of another student in our class were the best papers he had ever gotten from any of his students for that assignment. And he said that he gave that same assignment to all of his Economics students every semester. That afternoon, I realized that I was definitely destined to be an excellent student and one day a really good teacher.

As years have gone by, I keep hearing a lot about the economy from politicians. And today, I searched the internet looking for articles that I can possibly use for sources to write an article on that same topic. Here, I am sharing the bibliography I created today.

Davies, H. C. (2018). Transatlantic speculations: Globalization and the panics of 1873. Galileo. Columbia University press. Retrieved November 3, 2018.

Davies goes beyond national frames of analysis to explore international economic entanglement, using the panics’ interconnectedness to shed light on contemporary notions of the world economy. Blending cultural, intellectual, and legal history, Transatlantic Speculations gives vital transnational and comparative perspective on a crucial moment for financial markets, globalization, and capitalism.

Egan, M., Kurtz, A., Schmitz, A., & Tse, J. (2019, April 23). Stocks are at an all-time high. here’s what stopped the last 12 bull markets. CNN. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/23/investing/bull-market-history/index.html

The Globalist. (2001, April 11). U.S. presidents on the Global Economy. The Globalist. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://www.theglobalist.com/u-s-presidents-on-the-global-economy/

Irena (Ed.). (2020, January 2). Visualizing U.S. Economic History Timeline. howmuch.net. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://howmuch.net/articles/timeline-us-history

Kates-Smith, A. (2022, August). Dust Off Your Bear-Market Playbook. Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, 63–64.

See History Lesson on p. 64 – Chart showing Bear markets’ start dates and months of duration of those markets from June 15, 1948 – February 19, 2020.

Klebnikov, S. (2022, August 22). Bank of America warns of ‘textbook’ Bear Market Rally, predicting new lows for stocks. Forbes. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/08/19/bank-of-america-warns-of-textbook-bear-market-rally-predicting-new-lows-for-stocks/

Klebnikov, S. (2022, October 12). Here’s how long it takes for stocks to recover from Bear Markets. Forbes. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/05/23/heres-how-long-it-takes-for-stocks-to-recover-from-bear-markets/

Klebnikov, S. (2022, October 12). Stocks are crashing but history shows this bear market could recover faster than others. Forbes. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/06/29/stocks-are-crashing-but-history-shows-this-bear-market-could-recover-faster-than-others/

Learner, A. (2019, December 12). Economics U$A: 21st Century Edition. Annenberg Learner. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://www.learner.org/series/economics-ua-21st-century-edition/economic-timeline/

Li, X., & Zakamulin, V. (2019). Stock volatility predictability in Bull and Bear Markets. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3370828

Lim, P. J. (2018). 3 Ways This Bull Market Could End. Money, 47(1), 46–51.

Ponczek, S., Hajric, V., & Ballentine, C. (2020, November 3). Six investors size up Trump’s $9 Trillion stock market bull run. Bloomberg.com. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-03/six-investors-size-up-trump-s-9-trillion-stock-market-bull-run

(Bloomberg) — In the 1,456 days since Donald Trump was elected president, corporate taxes were cut, a trade war was fought, the Covid-19 pandemic raged — and the largest American companies added near $9 trillion in value. Up 55% since Election Day 2016, the S&P 500’s return is the fourth-best for a first-term president, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It’s a feat that appeals to a president who has graded and flaunted his success using points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, often to the exclusion of other measures. Numbers don’t lie, but deciding how much credit he deserves for the run is one of the most debated topics in markets. Trump’s corporate tax cut indisputably buttressed bottom lines, but monetary policy has also been extraordinarily accommodative during his administration. The president inherited a booming economy from Barack Obama, whose terms coincided with only slightly smaller gains in the S&P 500 than his successor. In the end, stocks did what they almost always do over any period as long as four years — go up. “Whether you’re talking Obama or you’re talking Trump or whoever, it’s hard to link that back to a president,” said Nathan Thooft, Manulife Investment Management’s head of global asset allocation. “They’re just one person among many people that are making decisions at the governmental level, let alone all the non-government related things that are actually driving the stock market.” Randy Frederick’s been in the business for 30 years. He remembers clients asking him in the depths of the 2008 financial crisis if they should move into cash. ….Frederick, who’s vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab & Co., has gotten similar inquiries in recent days in regards to the election. His advice? “Your best bet is to just stay in,” he said. “If your time horizon is long enough, the market is always bullish.” …He continued: “The reason for that is that what may have caused the markets to go down during that particular president’s first year or third year or whatever it was was probably something completely unrelated to that particular president,” he said. “Don’t base your investing decisions on the presidential cycle and don’t assume the market’s doing what it’s doing because of the president. It’s probably a coincidence. It may not have anything at all to do with it.”

Shah, D. (2020). Bear Markets and Beyond : A Bestiary of Business Terms. Galileo. eBook Collection (EBSCOhost) London : Portico. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://eds.p.ebscohost.com/eds/detail/detail?nobk=y&vid=3&sid=2e3cfdd2-15a7-48a8-a86d-08ee01fd0afb@redis&bdata=JkF1dGhUeXBlPWlwLHNoaWImc2l0ZT1lZHMtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRl#AN=2647799&db=nlebk.

BEAR MARKET This goes straight to the heart of the stock exchanges. Whilst the value of stocks generally rise and fall, at times they simply fall and fall. And if you have a fall of twenty per cent or a long-term decline of more than two months, this is when you have a Bear Market. It is the opposite of a Bull Market, some believe this pairing dates back to when bulls and bears were pitted against each other in staged fights. The bull would thrust its horns upwards, while the bear would swat down with its paws.

BEAR MARKET This goes straight to the heart of the stock exchanges. Whilst the value of stocks generally rise and fall, at times they simply fall and fall. And if you have a fall of twenty per cent or a long-term decline of more than two months, this is when you have a Bear Market. It is the opposite of a Bull Market, some believe this pairing dates back to when bulls and bears were pitted against each other in staged fights. The bull would thrust its horns upwards, while the bear would swat down with its paws.

Soergel, A. (2015, October 28). Which presidents have been best for the economy? – US news & world report. usnews.com. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2015/10/28/which-presidents-have-been-best-for-the-economy

Soule, G. (1946). The Big Bull Market. The New Republic, 241–243. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://eds.p.ebscohost.com/eds/detail/detail?vid=25&sid=2e3cfdd2-15a7-48a8-a86d-08ee01fd0afb%40redis&bdata=JkF1dGhUeXBlPWlwLHNoaWImc2l0ZT1lZHMtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRl#AN=14657605&db=pwh.

The Whitehouse Historical Association. (n.d.). The presidents timeline. WHHA (en-US). Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://www.whitehousehistory.org/the-presidents-timeline

Wikimedia Foundation. (2022, October 19). Economic history of the United States. Wikipedia. Retrieved November 3, 2022, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_the_United_States

Copyright © 2022 by Mary Kelly, MBA. Waycross, Georgia (U.S.A.)


About Mary Kelly

Mary Kelly is a retired community college professor, a licensed real estate broker in the states of Florida and Georgia, and a writer. She has three masters' degrees and is an avid reader - mostly of non-fiction. Her areas of study and experience are in business, computer science, and education. She currently resides in Waycross, Georgia, and her home is truly furnished for the comfort and convenience of her dogs. She loves the outdoors and loves walking in parks along lakes and on beaches. And she is somewhat of a minimalist and doesn't value having a lot of possessions.
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